Beginner The Myth of the Hot Hand: Understanding Trends in Cold Decks Owen Gaines Owen Gaines is a professional poker player and author who has played an estimated ten million hands and written four poker strategy books. January 6, 2026 Trends are temporary, and the rules of probability are the only things that stay constant at the table The “hot hand” is one of the most dangerous illusions to master. It’s the feeling that because you won the last few pots, you are somehow more likely to win the next one. This mindset often leads to playing too many hands or making risky bets without a real plan. In reality, poker is a game of independent events. The deck does not know who won the previous hand, and the cards do not favor a specific seat. If you’ve been on a winning streak, it’s usually just a cluster of good luck or solid play, not a permanent change in your odds. A “cold deck” feels just as real, appearing as a long run of bad cards or missed draws. Beginners often get frustrated during these stretches and start “forcing” plays to make something happen. This is a common mistake that leads to losing chips on weak hands just because you feel “due” for a win. Instead of chasing a feeling, focus on the math of your current hand. Each new deal is a fresh start with its own set of probabilities. A winning strategy relies on making the right decision based on your cards and your position, regardless of what happened ten minutes ago. When you feel like you have a “hot hand,” your confidence might actually be your biggest enemy. You might start playing hands like Jack-Eight or King-Five because you feel unstoppable. Good players wait for strong starting hands and don’t let a temporary streak change their fundamental requirements.