The Positivity Freeroll – Why You Should Stop Expecting To Lose

In Parts I and II of The Positivity Freeroll, I shared the incredible true story of how a message from beyond led me to the biggest tournament win I had up to that point. Today, we complete the trilogy by looking at the practicality of Positivity as it relates to making more money at the poker table.

Let’s look at one of the most common scenarios in poker that will come up thousands of times (if not more) over the span of your poker career – getting all your chips into the middle with a “flip” for your tournament life. In this situation, you are effectively dealt two options: to think positively and expect the runout to go your way, or to succumb to negativity and think something to the effect of “here we go again” or “I never win these.” Let’s dissect each path the same way we would while reviewing our hand-histories.

When You Choose Negativity And Expect To Lose

“How does it help…to make troubles heavier by bemoaning them?” -Seneca

Outcome 1: You’re Right & Lose – You’ve braced yourself for the worst, and the worst does indeed come. Although you might momentarily feel vindicated in your pessimism (“See? I told you I never win flips!”), it is nothing if not a hollow victory. Not only did you get bounced from the tournament, but you have reinforced a mindset that anchors you to your fears.

While you may ultimately be “right” in your negative expectation half the time, this offers only the most surface-level protection from the pain of disappointment (if any), and can lead to a subconscious cycle of self-fulfilling prophecies. Meaning, if I “know” I’m going to lose every time it matters, why would I ever try my best?

Outcome 2: You’re Wrong & Win – Once again, your negativity is proven unfounded and you win the hand, as would be expected ~50% of the time. Yet, the win is tainted; the excitement that should accompany the moment is overshadowed by the gloom of your expectations. Instead of gratitude for the win, you only feel relief for having avoided the abyss you had imagined. This victory brings little pleasure and does nothing to break the cycle of negativity.

When You Choose Positivity And Expect To Win

Outcome 1: You’re Right & Win – While we’ll never know for certain whether the energy we keep actually influences our results, ultimately the win isn’t about the chips sliding your way, but rather the reinforcement of a powerful truth: positivity breeds success.

Influence or not — placebo effect or not — the experience becomes a testament to the power of the mind, strengthening our mental fortitude in similar situations that will inevitably come.

Outcome 2: You’re Wrong & Lose – Although the results did not match your energy this time, the goal here isn’t naive optimism but developing resilience. By putting your energy behind a positive outcome, you reinforce a mindset that looks beyond the immediate results and propels you forward.

One trick I’ve added to this philosophy is, in those moments when the positivity “didn’t work” instead of thinking “of course not,” as I used to do, I say to myself something to the effect of “woah, I actually lost that one? I must be banking the rungood for a more meaningful spot!”

By focusing on positive outcomes, we can embed in ourselves the type of mindset that bypasses setbacks and immediately looks toward the opportunities ahead. In addition to reducing my poker stress-levels, I’ve found that this mental framing helps me tilt less and play better in the many tournaments to come.

So the next time you find yourself facing an all-in and the mind tried adding internal suffering (“this always happens!”) to your potential external suffering (losing the hand), consider taking a deep breath and reminding yourself of the words of the ancient stoic Epictetus:

“Don’t seek for everything to happen as you wish it would, but rather wish that everything happens as it actually will — then your life will flow well.”