Gradually, Then Suddenly: The Bust & Boom Of A Poker Life

In the book The Sun Also Rises, legendary author Ernest Hemingway writes one of the most memorable lines in American literature:

“How did I go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

Incredible wit aside, the line not only showcases the most common path to financial ruin, but has incredible applications to the poker life too, where breakthroughs and breakdowns are often separated by the thinnest of margins. But how can we apply Hemingway’s wisdom to our poker game and increase our bottom line? Let’s take a look and find out.

The Long Fall

When we think of poker bankruptcy – aka “going busto” – we picture huge blowups and massive tilts. However, the reality of the matter is that far more players lose their bankrolls in slow, painful fashion, mixing in a few sporadic wins between long strings of losses.

That’s because in poker, as in life, the biggest disasters usually do not come from some unexpected one-off events, but rather from small consistent mistakes repeated over long periods of time.

Here are three such mistakes that will all but guarantee you end up going “busto” gradually, then all at once.

1. Not leaving your ego out of your hand-history review

If you spend every review session focused on the negative side of variance (no matter what it seems like, every player gets more or less their fair share of both good and bad luck) or on how big of a “donkey” the opponent who took your money is, you run the risk of missing out on the immense value found in honest self-reflection.

Specifically, when playing against players who appear to be regulars at any limit beyond the micros, eliminating the pull of the ego and observing their play with the assumption that they may just know something you don’t (likely many things), allows you to begin reverse-engineering what that could be so you can better exploit their game as well as improve your own.

2. Not refining your hand selection, particularly preflop

Inexperienced poker players often fail to recognize the critical importance of preflop choices, but consistently calling a 3 big blind raise with marginal hands is a classic example of a seemingly minor error that can snowball into a huge problem gradually, then suddenly.

While the loss of 3 blinds may seem ultimately meaningless, the true danger rests in the cumulative effect of these suboptimal decisions. That’s because as you proceed through each hand with a weakened range, you end up compounding your preflop mistake in a plethora of ways postflop, potentially transforming a small loss into one with much greater significance.

3. Calling river bets when you are certain you are beat

There’s a saying I turn to when I hear my tilted mind urging me to make a crying call just so I can see that I was indeed sucked out on once again: you can be right or you can be rich.

Although being right will often make you rich as well, the point is that in those moments where you know your hand can’t possibly be good – at least not a high enough percentage of the time to mathematically justify a call – you can prove it to yourself by lighting your chips on fire, or you can choose to keep hold of them, no matter how few are left, and wait for a situation in which they actually have a chance of coming back home to your stack (hopefully with some friends!). Besides, as the other saying goes: a dollar saved is a dollar earned.

So, the next time you find yourself about to dismiss someone’s play, play a hand you know you shouldn’t, or make a crying call when you’re all but certain you are beat, remind yourself that the path to ruin isn’t paved immediately, but gradually, then suddenly.