The first market allows bettors to decide how many players will participate in the event
Kalshi has stepped into the poker world by launching prediction markets tied to the 2026 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event. The new market lets users trade on whether this year’s flagship tournament will attract more than 10,000 entries.
Early pricing suggests uncertainty. Odds currently imply a roughly even chance, with traders giving just over a 50% probability that the Main Event clears the 10,000-player mark. Activity has been light so far, with less than $1,000 traded, meaning the market is still finding its footing.
The WSOP has confirmed dates running from May 26 through July 15, though the full event schedule has not yet been released. That announcement typically arrives in February and often plays a role in shaping player turnout, especially for international travelers.
Recent history shows how narrow the margin can be. Last year’s Main Event drew 9,735 players, falling short of the record-setting fields seen in 2023 and 2024. Those two years were the only times the tournament topped 10,000 entries, setting a high bar for future editions.
Some people question whether the current odds are too hopeful. A new federal cap limiting gambling loss deductions to 90% could discourage high-volume players, especially professionals who rely on full offsets to manage taxes.
Kalshi users are also trading on whether that tax rule could be rolled back, with markets giving the repeal slightly better than even odds. A change there could impact both attendance and sentiment ahead of the summer series.
Still, the WSOP Main Event has a habit of beating expectations. The appeal and dream of a world title continue to draw players regardless of outside factors, keeping the debate wide open.
