There’s a hand from a streamed game that happened recently that has divided the poker world whether it’s total poker genius or absolute punt-Hall-of-Fame-worthy insanity. Let me break it down for you so you can decide for yourself.
If you’re not familiar with the characters, both players in the hand – Luda Chris and Big Mike – are live cash game regulars who play at some of the highest stakes available.
In this particular hand, Luda and two other players limp preflop for $200 each before Big Mike puts in an isolation raise to $1,500. After all three players call, the pot is now $6,600.
The flop comes AJ6 with 2 hearts, and the table checks around. The turn brings an offsuit king and everyone checks again. This is when things begin escalating. After the river brings an offsuit 4, Luda leads out with a massive $15,000 bet, nearly 2.5x pot. Unfortunately for him (it seemed), Big Mike had been checking back with pocket 4s and was now holding a set.
Feeling confident with his hand, Big Mike raised Luda’s overbet to $35,000, presumably trying to get called by whatever weird two pair or stubborn ace Luda could be holding. For most players, this would be the end of the hand, but not for Luda. Sitting there holding Q7o, good for queen-high and nothing but, Luda decided he wasn’t willing to surrender just yet and instead clicked it back to $55,000, leaving $25,000 behind in his stack.
Facing the unexpected raise, Big Mike shot up from his seat and started pacing back and forth trying to figure things out. After a few moments of deliberation, he finally sent his cards into the muck as Luda tabled his queen-high face-up with a hilariously deadpan “I had it. I had it.” as the table exploded with laughter.
So, was this bluff genius or total lunacy? And what about the fold? Genius or insanity? Let’s take a look at both sides.
The Case for Genius Fold
At the end of the day, sitting in Mike’s seat with bottom set facing a reraise, you have to ask yourself: what hands could possibly play this way?
Luda limp-called preflop, checked two streets on an AJ6K board, and then made a 2.5x pot overbet on the river before three-betting when raised. QT makes sense of course and perhaps a sneakily-played AA or 66.
AJ/AK raises or reraises preflop, KJ never 4bets the river, and neither does any other two-pair combination. Flush draws likely show up on the turn and don’t make as much sense to bluff with on the river since you want your opponent to have it. And so, for the overwhelming majority of players, that’s going to be the entire range: one nutted hand and maybe two other hands, both of which beat a set of 4s.
Looking at it from that perspective, it seems logical for Mike to make a big fold here, even getting the incredible pot odds that he was. After all, pot odds mean nothing if you believe your opponent never has worse. And if Luda had in fact been holding one of those hands, we’d definitely be calling Mike a genius. Unfortunately…
The Case for Insane Fold
There aren’t many situations in poker where you can comfortably fold a set for your last $20 when the pot is already $100. In this scenario you only need to be right about 17% of the time to show a profit, so if you think there’s any chance your opponent is bluffing, this is one of those spots you just have to sigh-call and slide your chips your opponent’s way if they show you the goods.
More importantly, if there is one player at the table who could be bluffing in a spot where hardly anyone does, it would definitely be Luda, a man whose reputation is literally built on doing exactly this kind of thing (YouTube “Luda bluffs” and see for yourself). As a regular in the games, Big Mike should have known that Luda absolutely has more hands than just the nuts in his range. And when that’s the case, this hand most likely has to be played as a call.
Now let’s take a look at the bigger question: was Luda’s bluff genius or insanity?
The Case for Genius Bluff
When Luda made this bluff, he had two things going for him. First, he knew that with Big Mike being the thinking player he is, he would ask himself the exact question we just did, who the heck bluffs like this?
Not only did Luda bluff, but he clicked it back rather than applying max pressure with an all-in. From Mike’s perspective, it would be hard to see this raise as anything but Luda trying to milk him while holding the nuts.
Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, Luda was holding a queen in his hand, otherwise known as a blocker to the nuts. By measure of having that card, Luda knew it was much less likely that Big Mike did, meaning he would be put to an incredibly tough decision no matter what hand he had (because it wouldn’t be the nuts).
Taking both these factors into consideration, it’s hard not to give Luda credit for a brilliant bluff.
But…
The Case for Insane Bluff
As someone who was a serial ‘punter’ for many years, I can still feel the visceral surge of adrenaline coursing through my veins as I think back to all the times I got my hand caught in the fancy-play-syndrome cookie jar. Watching this hand back, I got flashes of all the sessions where I’d grind my stack up, only to punt it off right at the end of the session trying to make my opponent fold a big hand.
And while my opponents were never on the level Big Mike is, and thus it makes sense to expect him to make some folds weaker players wouldn’t, when we consider Luda’s image as a hyper-aggressive player, as well as the incredible pot odds being offered, and it really does seem like Luda found the one time out of 100 (or 1,000) when this play would work.
So, as much as I’d like to give him credit for knowing this would be that one time, history has taught me – and should have taught Mike – that this was nothing more than another classic Luda blowup where he turned what should have been a $200 loss into a $55,000 win.
With that said, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take, so kudos to Luda for having the guts to make a play that hardly anyone else would.
I mean that.
And for the record, the one part of this hand that is not up for debate, is that needle of “I had it. I had it.” while tabling queen-high is peak poker comedic genius.
