By combining certain metrics, you can build a comprehensive picture of a starting pitcher’s value
Handicapping starting pitchers is arguably the most crucial element in MLB betting. While other factors like bullpen strength, team offense, and even weather play a role, the pitcher on the mound sets the tone for the game. To effectively evaluate them, you need to dig beyond traditional stats like ERA and wins.
Start by looking at WHIP (Walks + Hits Per Inning Pitched). A low WHIP indicates a pitcher who keeps baserunners off, which directly correlates to fewer scoring opportunities. Complement this with K/9 (Strikeouts per 9 innings) and BB/9 (Walks per 9 innings). High strikeout rates show a pitcher’s ability to dominate hitters, while low walk rates indicate strong control.
However, statistics can be misleading. That’s where FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) comes in. FIP attempts to measure what a pitcher’s ERA should have been by isolating outcomes they control (strikeouts, walks, hit batters, home runs) from those influenced by defense or luck (balls in play). If a pitcher’s ERA is significantly higher than their FIP, they might be due for positive regression (their ERA should improve), and vice versa.
Don’t overlook recent form. A pitcher with a sparkling season ERA might be struggling lately, or a previously inconsistent hurler could be on a hot streak. Check their last few starts for velocity changes, control issues, or new pitch usage.
Splits are also vital. How does a pitcher perform at home versus on the road? Against left-handed versus right-handed hitters? Some pitchers thrive in their home park, while others struggle in certain environments. Similarly, a pitcher who dominates same-handed batters but struggles with opposite-handed ones faces a tough challenge against a lineup stacked with their weakness.
Finally, consider the opponent’s lineup and their tendencies. Does the opposing team strike out a lot or put a lot of balls in play? Do they hit for power or rely on contact? A great strikeout pitcher might be a good bet against a swing-and-miss heavy lineup but could struggle against a team focused on putting the ball in play.
