For sports bettors looking to combine multiple predictions into a single, high-payout wager, parlays offer an exciting avenue. Among the various ways to construct these multi-leg bets, building a parlay with moneyline bets is one of the most common and straightforward approaches. A moneyline parlay allows bettors to combine the straightforward win/loss predictions of several individual events, multiplying the odds for a potentially significant return. However, with increased payout potential comes increased risk, as every leg of the parlay must hit for the bet to be successful.
This article will delve into the mechanics of how to build a parlay with moneyline bets, explaining the calculation of odds, the advantages and disadvantages, and crucial strategies for constructing intelligent parlays. By understanding these principles, bettors can approach parlays not as mere long shots, but as calculated risks with potentially rewarding outcomes.
Understanding the Basics of Parlays with Moneylines
At its core, a parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers, known as “legs.” For the parlay to win, every single leg must be correct. If even one leg loses, the entire parlay is a loss. When you choose to build a parlay with moneyline bets, each leg involves simply picking the winner of a game or event.
How Parlay Odds are Calculated
The appeal of parlays stems from their exponentially increasing odds. The payout for a parlay is calculated by multiplying the odds of each individual leg. While this sounds simple, it is important to remember that most sportsbooks use American odds, which require conversion to decimal odds for easier multiplication.
- Step 1: Convert American Odds to Decimal Odds.
- For positive American odds (+): Decimal Odds = (American Odds / 100) + 1
- For negative American odds (-): Decimal Odds = (100 / |American Odds|) + 1
Example: +150 American odds = (150 / 100) + 1 = 2.50 Decimal odds
Example: -200 American odds = (100 / 200) + 1 = 1.50 Decimal odds
- Step 2: Multiply the Decimal Odds of Each Leg.
This product gives you the total decimal odds for your parlay.
Example: A 3-leg parlay with decimal odds of 2.50, 1.50, and 2.00 would have total parlay odds of 2.50 * 1.50 * 2.00 = 7.50
- Step 3: Calculate Your Payout.
Multiply your initial stake by the total parlay decimal odds.
Example: A $100 stake on a parlay with total odds of 7.50 = $100 * 7.50 = $750 total return (which includes your original $100 stake, meaning $650 profit).
Many sportsbooks automatically calculate parlay odds for you as you add selections to your betting slip, making the process user-friendly. However, understanding the underlying calculation is essential for grasping the risk and reward.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Parlays with Moneylines
The most significant advantage of creating a parlay with moneyline bets is the opportunity for a much larger payout than placing individual bets. By combining multiple lower-odds favorites, the overall odds can become quite attractive. Similarly, combining a few carefully selected underdog moneyline bets can result in astronomical potential returns.
The main disadvantage, and a critical factor to consider, is the increased risk. The probability of winning a parlay decreases significantly with each additional leg. Even if each individual leg has a high probability of winning, the cumulative probability of all legs winning simultaneously can be quite low. This “all or nothing” nature means that parlays, while exciting, should be approached with caution and responsible bankroll management.
Strategic Approaches to Building Moneyline Parlays
While parlays are often viewed as high-risk, high-reward propositions, there are strategic approaches to building a parlay with moneyline bets that can improve your chances of success. These strategies focus on identifying value and minimizing unnecessary risk.
Combining Favorites Carefully
One common strategy is to combine several strong favorites into a parlay. Individually, these favorites might offer low payouts. However, when parlayed together, their odds multiply to create a more appealing return. The key here is “carefully.” Even strong favorites lose occasionally, so avoid including too many legs. A 2- or 3-leg parlay consisting of heavy favorites can offer a decent return with a relatively higher probability of success compared to parlays with many legs.
Before including a strong favorite, consider any potential “trap games” where a dominant team might be playing a weaker opponent in an unusual situation (e.g., after a big rivalry game, on short rest, or with key players potentially resting).
Integrating Underdogs for Higher Payouts
For those seeking bigger returns, strategically incorporating one or two carefully selected underdogs into a parlay with moneyline bets can significantly boost the overall odds. This approach requires meticulous research to identify undervalued underdogs that have a genuine chance of winning.
Factors to consider when selecting underdog legs include recent strong form, key injuries to the favorite, a significant home-field advantage for the underdog, or unique stylistic matchups that favor the underdog despite the odds. The goal is to find underdogs whose true probability of winning is higher than what the moneyline odds suggest.
Correlated Parlays (When Available)
While most sportsbooks prevent correlated parlays (where the outcome of one leg directly influences another), understanding the concept is valuable. Some niche markets or same-game parlay options might allow for loosely correlated events. For example, betting on a high-scoring offense to win their game and also betting on the “over” total points in that same game. These can increase your edge, but are usually restricted due to their inherent advantage for the bettor.
Key Considerations for Successful Moneyline Parlays
Constructing a successful parlay with moneyline bets involves more than just picking winners; it requires discipline, research, and adherence to sound betting principles.
Thorough Research is Non-Negotiable
Every leg of your parlay must be backed by solid research. Analyze team form, head-to-head records, injuries, coaching strategies, motivational factors, and any other relevant statistics. A single weak link can break the entire parlay, so due diligence on each selection is paramount.
Limit the Number of Legs
While adding more legs increases the potential payout, it also drastically decreases the probability of success. For most bettors, keeping parlays to 2-4 legs offers a reasonable balance between increased odds and realistic chances of winning. Parlays with too many legs often become lottery tickets rather than strategic wagers.
Bankroll Management for Parlays
Given the higher risk associated with parlays, allocating a smaller percentage of your bankroll to them compared to straight bets is a wise strategy. Treat parlays as exciting, higher-upside opportunities rather than daily staples. A common approach is to dedicate a small portion of your bankroll for parlay attempts, perhaps 5-10% of your total betting capital.
| Strategy Element | Description | Impact on Parlay Success |
| Odds Conversion | Convert American odds to decimal for accurate multiplication. | Ensures correct calculation of potential payout. |
| Limit Legs | Keep parlays to a manageable number of selections (e.g., 2-4). | Increases overall probability of success while still boosting odds. |
| Deep Research | Thorough analysis of each individual game/leg. | Mitigates risk of unexpected upsets on individual legs. |
| Strategic Underdog Inclusion | Add undervalued underdogs with a strong case for winning. | Significantly boosts payout potential while maintaining a logical basis. |
Building a parlay with moneyline bets offers an exhilarating way to engage with sports betting, promising higher returns than single wagers. However, success in parlays is not solely about hoping for the best. It hinges on a clear understanding of odds calculation, meticulous research into each component leg, and disciplined bankroll management. By combining strong favorites with strategically chosen underdogs and limiting the overall number of selections, bettors can transform parlays from pure gambles into a calculated part of their broader betting strategy. Approach them with an analytical mindset, and the rewards can be significant.
