By marrying team stats and extrinsic variables, you can position yourself better to identify value
When placing soccer Over/Under bets, familiarity with goal-scoring trends is useful in gaining insight into the bettor’s advantage. Soccer bets of this type are predicated on the number of goals likely to exceed or fall short of a specified limit, usually 2.5 goals. To make better bets, it is useful to examine several variables that influence scoring trends.
One of the key areas of research is team statistics. Look at the average goals scored and goals allowed per match, home and away. Some teams are attack-minded, taking the game to the other team for a goal every match, and others that are defensive-minded and play it safe. For example, Manchester City or Bayern Munich tend to deliver high-scoring games, while teams that fight against relegation are usually cautious.
A useful tool is to examine the current form. A team that has scored or conceded heavily in their previous five matches could be on a streak of form that is worth capitalizing on. Injuries, especially to front or back-line players, also have a significant bearing. A team missing its top scorer is likely to see the probability of a high-scoring match fall significantly.
Weather and conditions of the pitch cannot be excluded. Poor weather leads to fewer goals since wet grounds and wind influence the pace and style of the game. Then, there is the context of the match: is it a league-deciding match, a cup tie, or a friendly? Competitive games, and particularly near the close of the season, are closer games if there’s something to play for.
Last but not least, taking a look at head-to-head encounters between some teams can be useful. Some teams produce goal-fests after goal-fest in their games consistently, while others are nip and tuck year after year.
