Recently, high stakes poker pro Phil Galfond spoke about one of the most common emotional traps players fall into: overvaluing their hand once the texture of the board has shifted. A classic example is when holding a pair of Kings and seeing an Ace fall on the flop. If you want to play this spot correctly, you need to approach it analytically, not emotionally.
Here are Galfond’s four tips for playing this spot correctly, with some poker solver-approved data to back it up.
Step 1: Let Go of Preflop Attachment
A moment ago, you had the second-best starting hand in the game, but that’s over now. The flop has changed the dynamics of the hand. Kings are no longer a premium holding on an Ace-high board. Your first job is to adjust to that reality. The longer you cling to how strong your hand felt preflop, the harder it is to find the right line postflop.Step 2: Assess Whether This Is a Range-Bet Board
Not all flops are treated equally by the solver. Some flops—especially dry, disconnected ones where the preflop raiser retains a significant range and nut advantage—warrant a near-100% c-betting strategy. Other flops, particularly those that connect with the caller’s range, call for a more cautious and selective strategy. On high-card disconnected boards, such as Q72 or K83, solvers prefer betting their entire range in single-raised pots. Similarly, solvers like to “range-bet” (aka bet every single hand) on triple broadway ace-high boards such as AKQr. The reason is simple – when we, as the preflop raiser, have the range advantage (aka we have more strong hands than our opponent based on the preflop action), we get to apply maximum pressure by taking the betting lead. So, the next time you have pocket kings on an ace-high board, the first thing to ask yourself is: is this a range-bet board? If yes, then proceed with a bet. If not, pocket kings can be great hands to place in your check-back range since they’re no longer at risk of a turn overcard.Step 3: If You Bet the Flop, Slow Down on the Turn
Let’s say you did choose to bet the flop, either because the board warranted a full-range bet or you decided to include Kings in your betting mix. Once your opponent calls, your hand’s relative value has dropped. On an ace-high board, the turn will often not be a good card for a second barrel with Kings. By that point you’re not getting called by worse as often, and hands that do call the flop and continue on the turn will likely either have you beat or have significant equity against you. Looking at an AJ9 rainbow board, the solver already checks back the flop with more than half of its combinations of kings. Of the hands that it does bet, it checks back the turn 100% of the time on any J, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 90% of the time on a second ace. This is a situation in which kings are either way ahead or way behind, and there’s therefore not as much risk in checking back. So, avoid double-barrelling too often with kings and instead turn your hand into a two-street game.Step 4: Protect Your Range by Checking Stronger Hands Too
According to Galfond, one of the best ways to support checking Kings is to build a balanced checking range that also includes some of your strongest hands. For example: The solver checks back about half of its weak Ax hands on an A73 board to avoid letting opponents profitably overbluff the turn against check backs. Phil claims he also likes to throw in some AA checks since we block top pair hands so heavily, though the solver disagrees on this point, betting its top set nearly 100% of the time in this configuration. Regardless of your preference, by checking some relatively strong hands, you create a much more difficult puzzle for your opponent. Now your check includes a good mix of strong hands, medium-strength hands like KK, and air. This makes you less predictable and much harder to exploit. This is how both the solvers and the pros approach the spot. With a logic rooted in balance, range construction, and playability.
