One of the most nuanced aspects of playing poker well is figuring out not just when to bluff, but how often to bluff. Bluff too often, and your opponents can exploit you by calling wider and re-bluffing wider. Bluff too rarely, and your opponents can exploit you by overfolding to your bets and attacking your checks aggressively. So then what’s the solution? How do you know how many bluffs you should have in each particular spot? The answer is surprisingly simple: count your value hands. Let me explain.
The Big Question
Imagine you raise from the cutoff in a 6-max cash game, with only the big blind calling. The flop comes 6d6s2c and the big blind checks to you. After you c-bet, they call and check the Qc turn, a card that’s significantly better for your range than theirs (since you have hands like QQ, AQ, and KQs in your range as the preflop aggressor while they, as the caller, generally do not). But before you begin blasting away with your entire range, make sure to ask yourself the all-important question: how many value hands do I realistically have here?
Let’s break it down:
- Trips and full houses: Your range includes a number of suited 6x hands including A6s (and sometimes A6o), K6s, Q6s, 76s, and 65s, as well as 22 and QQ for a boat and the improbable but still possible 66 for quads (though less likely here, as many players would check back such an invincible hand on the flop).
- Strong top pairs: As mentioned, you also have hands like AQ, KQ, QJ, and QT (both of the suited and offsuit variety) that can comfortably bet multiple streets.
- Overpairs: AA and KK remain squarely in your range and not your opponent’s.
Running through these possibilities, it’s clear that your range contains quite a few combinations of very strong hands. This abundance of strong holdings not only gives you the ability—but actually requires—that you include more bluffs in your betting range to remain balanced and unpredictable. But just because you should bet more hands as bluffs, doesn’t mean you should bet all your bluffs. So what hands make good candidates? Let’s investigate.
Some ideal bluffing candidates include:
- Suited connectors with no showdown value such as 87c and T9c that picked up a flush draw.
- Hands with blockers that interfere with your opponent’s strongest calling hands. For example, K9 can continue barrelling, as it blocks value hands like KQ and Q9s.
- Hands at the bottom of your range that still retain some equity such as 44-55 and A5 (even without a club). These hands might not win often at showdown, but they benefit greatly by causing better hands to fold, for example 77-88 and A7-A9.
- Some hands with very little equity that can still make top or second pair, such as K8s, JTo, and even a hand as weak as 98 without a club. Remember, we need a good number of bluffs to balance our large value range, meaning that not all our bluffs can be the attractive flush or straight draws.
This approach protects you against exploitation. If your bluffs match your value frequency, opponents will struggle to figure out when you’re bluffing versus when you’re value betting. So make sure to always start your bluffing strategy by identifying how many value combinations you have, the more value hands in your range, the greater your obligation to bluff more frequently!
Good luck.
