How the schedule plays out can greatly influence the outcome of bets
When it comes to futures betting in the NFL, one of the most important and often debated factors is schedule strength. Bettors looking ahead to place wagers on things like win totals, division champions, or even Super Bowl winners often consider how difficult a team’s upcoming schedule appears to be. While this isn’t the only factor involved, it can have a major impact on both public perception and betting odds.
A team facing opponents with high winning percentages from the previous season is usually seen as having a tougher road. Sportsbooks take this into account when setting odds, which means a team with a challenging schedule might have longer odds to win their division or hit a certain number of wins. This can present value for some bettors who believe a strong roster can overcome that difficulty, or it may serve as a warning sign for those looking to play it safe.
On the flip side, teams with what appears to be an easier schedule often see more favorable lines, especially if they’re coming off a decent year. But strength of schedule isn’t always as simple as looking at last season’s records.
Teams change dramatically in the offseason—quarterback trades, new coaches, and draft picks can all change a team’s outlook. That’s why savvy bettors dig deeper. They look at travel demands, short weeks, bye week placement, and even how many games a team plays against opponents coming off extra rest.
Public bettors often flock to teams with soft schedules and known stars, which can shift lines further. Sharp bettors try to find teams with misleading schedule difficulty—maybe a team with a tough-looking schedule is actually facing several opponents in rebuilding mode.
