Increase your bankroll potential by exploring the value of the games
Analyzing NBA game totals requires more than just looking at recent scores. Spotting whether a total is overvalued or undervalued before a game starts involves understanding pace, offensive and defensive efficiency, injuries, and betting trends.
One of the biggest factors in evaluating a total is the pace of play. Teams that push the ball up the court quickly and take early shots tend to produce higher-scoring games.
Conversely, teams that favor a half-court offense and slow possessions often lead to lower-scoring matchups. If a game features two fast-paced teams but the total is set lower than expected, it could be undervalued. On the other hand, if a total is inflated due to past high-scoring performances but involves a slower team, it might be overvalued.
Offensive and defensive efficiency also play a huge role. Teams that score efficiently while taking a reasonable number of shots tend to hit overs consistently. However, if a team has a high-scoring average but relies on an unsustainable shooting percentage, the total might be set too high.
Defensive metrics, such as opponent field goal percentage and defensive rebounding, can also signal whether a game will be lower or higher scoring than expected.
Injuries significantly impact game totals, especially when key scorers or defensive anchors are missing. If a team loses its leading scorer, the under may be a stronger play. On the flip side, if a key defensive player is out, opponents may find it easier to score, making an over more likely.
Finally, paying attention to betting trends and line movement can provide insight into whether a total is set correctly. If the total moves significantly due to public betting but doesn’t align with statistical indicators, it could present an opportunity to bet against the movement.
