Using stats together helps create a smarter, more targeted approach to home run prop bets
When betting on MLB home run props, it’s crucial to look beyond star power or recent highlights. Success in this type of wager comes from studying the right statistics to identify players with a solid chance of going deep. Here are some of the most useful stats to guide your picks.
Isolated Power (ISO) is one of the most important metrics. It measures a player’s raw power by showing how often they hit for extra bases. The higher the ISO, the more likely a hitter is to drive the ball out of the park. A player with an ISO over .250 is usually a strong home run threat.
Fly Ball Percentage (FB%) and Pull Percentage (Pull%) are also telling. Players who hit more fly balls and consistently pull the ball (especially right-handed batters vs. left-handed pitchers and vice versa) tend to have more home run potential. Combining these two stats gives insight into a player’s hitting style and whether it matches up well against the opposing pitcher.
Exit Velocity and Launch Angle are modern statcast metrics that further paint the picture. Exit velocity tells you how hard the ball is being hit, and launch angle shows whether it’s hit at the right trajectory to leave the yard. When both are high, that’s a solid sign the hitter is dialed in.
Pitcher splits also matter. Look at how opposing pitchers perform against righties vs. lefties, and whether they give up a lot of home runs. Some pitchers have trouble keeping the ball in the park, especially against power hitters.
Finally, weather and ballpark factors play a role. Warm air, wind blowing out, and hitter-friendly stadiums like Coors Field or Great American Ball Park can all boost home run chances.
